George Kennan on Ukraine

Until a few days ago when the specialised American media, i.e. Foreign Affairs magazine, published George F. Kennan's views on Ukraine independence, I had been unaware of his views on the matter.

What is striking, however, is that my opinions on Ukraine and Kennan's own assessment are remarkably similar. Thus when two distant, unconnected specialists with a good working knowledge of Russia and Eastern Europe independently arrive at remarkably similar conclusions, there is a very good chance that such opinions are closer to the realities on the ground than current US policy on Ukraine.

Take Ukraine independence, for example. George Kennan believed that it was next to impossible to draw an ethnic division line between Russia and Ukraine, as their language and culture are very similar. For him, separating Ukraine from Russia was as outlandish as trying to separate the American Corn Belt from the rest of the United States.

Consequently, as early as 1948 he advised US policymakers against  supporting Ukrainian drives for independence. In case independence happened on its own, as it did, Kennan cautioned the US to refrain from actively supporting it, since Russia was never truly going to accept such a development. The two were so culturally similar and economically intertwined that an independent Ukraine - he warned- could only be sustained by force of arms.

To his mind, none of the current US policies towards Russia, which are meant to "weaken" it, would have made any sense whatsoever. He staunchly maintained that the West needed a strong and functional Russian state in the region for balance and security reasons.

Unfortunately, his visionary assessment of possible developments in Eastern Europe, including Ukraine independence and potential conflict with Russia, has been completely ignored by current US policymakers. The results of such ignorance speak for themselves.