Turkey: Time to Mend Diplomatic Fences

 December 24, 2014

Turkey has today announced its budget for 2015. Total spending is estimated at 225 billion dollars, whereas revenue is expected to be around 216 billion USD, leaving a deficit of only 9 billion USD. The biggest items on its expenditure list are health and education, with 38 billion dollars earmarked for each, which is a significant amount by any standards. Moreover, despite the turmoil in the Middle East and stagnation in Europe, Turkey’s economy is expected to grow by 3.5 percent next year. (source: Hurriyet)

 

The good news about Turkey’s good economic performance is overshadowed by a war of words between the Turkish government and some EU officials about what is essentially an internal political affair involving journalists from Zaman. Unfortunately, every now and again EU officials feel compelled to lecture condescendingly to their Turkish counterparts on various issues, forgetting the fact that the Ottoman Empire had successfully ruled a large territory that is today part of the Union (as well as the Maghreb and the Middle East) for a few hundred years and that its army could only be stopped in its tracks in 1683, while halfway to Dover.

 

On the diplomatic front, however, President Erdogan and his government have to finally come to terms with the brutal demise from power of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt. Truth be told, the Islamic brand of democracy promoted after the 2011 Arab revolutions by Turkey has not really caught on in North Africa or the Middle East. This is not to say that such a development will never happen in the future, but so far Arabs have shown they are less pragmatic and more radical in their approach to political Islam than the Turks, hence the fiasco.

 

Still, Egypt remains the largest Arab country and therefore Turkish authorities cannot continue to reject the normalization of diplomatic relations with Al-Sissi, distasteful as this might be in practice. The current state of diplomatic relations with Egypt could only insulate Turkey within the Arab world, an outcome that neither Mr Davutoglu, the prime minister, nor President Erdogan would benefit from.

 

Over the past few years, the promotion of Islamic values within Turkey has intensified to levels that remind us of the aggressive promotion of secularism by Kemalist authorities last century. Most politicians in Europe reject the Islamization of their own continent and do by now understand that Turks – likewise – are entitled to refuse European values and to affirm their own instead. Still, the forced Islamization of Turkish society could defeat the purpose, if the policies and the methods used to implement them prove too hasty or too harsh. In such an event, all the solid achievements of the AK Party over the past 12 years are at risk of being overshadowed by social, religious or ethnic tensions which have the potential to tear the Turkish social fabric apart.

 

Austerity and Inequality Undermine the EU

 December 17, 2014

The numerous geopolitical tensions in 2014 in Ukraine, Syria or Iraq could not obscure the fact that the most worrying problems in the world today are economic, and not geopolitical, in nature.

The total failure of austerity policies within the EU is by now the most pressing concern of governments from the North to the South of the continent. Hailed a few years back by European conservatives as a miracle cure to the sovereign debt crisis, austerity policies have not succeeded in reducing the public debt of Spain and Greece or their 25+ percent unemployment rates. Moreover, the much-touted “golden rule” enforced by Germany via Brussels has only made matters worse, bringing the EU-wide economy to a standstill. The spectres of stagnation and deflation are haunting the chancelleries of most EU countries, as is a Japanese-style extended period of economic malaise.

Another major concern for EU policymakers is the widening inequality in incomes, favouring the rich and severely punishing the European middle classes and the poor. According to the German Office of Statistics, even a seemingly successful country like Germany has 20.5 percent of its population in danger of falling into poverty, whilst the EU-wide average figure stands even higher at 24.5 percent. The bleak economic situation experienced by nearly all EU members has recently generated huge street protests and general strikes, from Belgium to Italy and from Greece to Spain. The reduction in the standards of living of the middle classes – whose existence is endangered by the past few years’ myopic austerity policies – combined with the spectre of rising poverty, have motivated students, union members and pensioners to come together in record numbers in an effort to block or even reverse such misguided policies.

In countries like Greece and Spain, radical political parties of the left such as Syriza and Podemos are in the process of undermining political support for traditional parties of the right or of the left, which stand discredited by years of enforcing economic policies that had not produced the expected results. In countries like France, the UK or Hungary, voters’ preferences are also deserting traditional parties in favour of nationalist political parties such as the Front National, UKIP or Fidesz. To add insult to injury, a deal between the EU’s social democrats and conservatives has resulted in the appointment as Commission President of Jean-Claude Juncker , ex-prime minister of Luxemburg, which is the EU’s capital of the tax-avoidance industry.

The failure of austerity policies and the growth of inequalities have not, however, made a lasting impression on German politicians or determined them to rethink their approach to solving economic stagnation and high unemployment in the EU. Quite on the contrary, the conservative leadership of Germany keeps insisting that the bitter medicine that failed to revive the EU’s economy has to be swallowed even more rigorously in the future. This is an approach that can only lead to more economic stagnation, more poverty and more social upheavals on the continent.