WHY I DON'T TAKE SIDES IN THE WAR IN GAZA

 It may come as a surprise to readers of my geopolitics blog  that I have avoided - and will continue to avoid - taking sides in the conflict pitching Israelis against Palestinians in Gaza. 

The reasons are however quite simple. As a Romanian-Australian historian having specialised in Toulouse in international relations and geopolitics, my professional interests are exclusively focused on developments happening around Romania and, by extension, in Eurasia. This is why I have devoted most of my professional attention to the war in Ukraine in the past twenty months, as well as before that, since 2014. Sadly, Romania still has more than half a million ethnic Romanians living, or dying on the battlefields in Ukraine, and unfortunately it has been flooded with hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian refugees since February 2022. 

As Romania was for more than two decades a satellite of China during the Ceausescu regime, I have also paid special attention to China's spreading influence in Eastern Europe, before and after 1989.

By the same token, Russia was an important actor in the evolution of the Romanian principalities during the Middle Ages, as well as a leading power involved in the major developments affecting the history of the modern Romanian state since the unification in 1859. 

My professional interest in the major events happening within the EU has  deepened since 2007, when Romania was admitted as a member. 

My acquired knowledge of events from parts of the Arab world dates back to 2010-2011, when I was studying for my masters degree at Sciences Po in Toulouse. My research thesis then was concerned with the evolution of the EU's relations with the Maghreb countries. My thesis did not include research or references to events in the Mashreq ,nor did I acquire the necessary in-depth historical information about these areas.

After World War II, the US replaced European powers - the British and the French- in the Middle East, becoming its sole peace and security provider. Consequently, I have usually paid only scant attention to developments there. I have always considered it a huge mistake,for example,  and an illustration of his megalomania the fact that Ceausescu had cultivated political leaders from the Middle East, like Yasset Arafat , or that he tried - albeit unsuccessfully - to play the role of peacemaker between the Israelis and the Palestinians.

A comparative analysis of the way major powers have governed the Arabs from the Middle East over the past few hundred years reveals the fact that the Ottomans were by far much more adept at keeping the peace among Arabs than the West has over the last  hundred years. Naturally, having the same religion as the Arabs in the Middle East or North Africa has helped the Ottoman Turks keep the peace in those regions until 1918 when the Sultanate imploded. Unfortunately, the skills of various Western administrators, including the Americans, were not up the task of keeping the Middle East stable and the Arabs pacified .

This above comment, however, should not be understood as an endorsement of President Erdogan's latest speech in Istanbul on behalf of the Palestinians from Gaza. Although his first decade in power was very successful, Erdogan has slowly but surely torpedoed his main achievements during his second decade at the helm. Trying to bask in the glory of his Ottoman predecessors, or of that of Kemal Ataturk, will not help the efforts to stabilise the Middle East or put an end to the conflict in Gaza. 





A FAREWELL TO THE REPUBLIC OF ARTSAKH

It is generally assumed that international relations graduates from IEP in Toulouse contribute little, if at all, to the management of international crises or their resolution. As always, there are exceptions to this rule.

The decision of the Armenian leaders of the Nagorno Karabakh enclave (Azerbaijan) to evacuate the province and relocate the entire population from there to the interior of the Armenian state is a step in the right direction. It brings to an end several decades of military confrontation between the Azeri Muslim majority and the Armenian Christian minority.

On August 4, 2023, I commented on an article about Armenians in the Azeri province signed by Srdja Trifkovic (Chronicles Magazine), stating that :

" Now, returning to the dire situation of the Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, I must say that I do not believe that there are any diplomatic or military solutions to this geopolitical problem. I also believe that the absorption of the 150,000 Armenians living there into the Armenian state proper is a much more logical and practical solution. After all, this is what the state of Israel has been doing for decades: absorbing Jews from countries where their ordinary life and religion are threatened."

I am now happy to hear that the Armenian authorities have reached the same conclusion and reacted accordingly.

Incredibly as this might sound, however, the bureaucrats of the US State Department would like Azerbaidjan to create the conditions for the RETURN of the 100,000 Armenians who already fled Nagorno Karabakh for the safety of Armenia. Their stance calls into question their ability to conduct American foreign affairs in Eurasia.

FROM ATLANTIC WAVE TO REVOLUTIONARY CONTAGION

  "   Palmer and Godechot presented the challenge of an Atlantic history at the Tenth International History Congress in 1955. It fell f...