RUSSIA'S GEOPOLITICAL FUTURE

Although the Russians consider themselves European and have fought for 3 centuries to obtain a place in the European family of nations, their efforts have been in vain.

One of the consequences of the war in Ukraine is the loss of Moscow's pro-European illusions. As I wrote since 2014 in my essay, "The New Pivot of History", Russia's natural allies and most reliable partners are in Asia (China and India), not in Europe.

We can therefore speak from now on of Russia as an ASIAN military (and perhaps in the future also economic) power , one of the 3 great powers in the Indo-Pacific area, which are becoming more and more economically and strategically integrated and geostrategically opposed to the Western Euro-Atlantic bloc, headed by the USA.

Many American politicians and specialists try to accredit the idea of ​​a geostrategic symmetry between the situation in Ukraine and the existing one between China and Taiwan. In reality, the threat that Ukraine represents for Russia in case the former succeeds in joining the EU and NATO is incomparably greater than that represented by Taiwan for China. 

Unlike Russia, which has already been invaded by coalitions of western states twice in the last 200 years, China is not in danger of being attacked from the east, using Taiwan as a base to launch a potential invasion. In other words, although there is the possibility of a military conflict between China and Taiwan, catalyzed by the US and Japan, the confrontation cannot take on an existential character for Beijing, as is the case with the current military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine.