RUSSIA'S GEOPOLITICAL FUTURE

Although the Russians consider themselves European and have fought for 3 centuries to obtain a place in the European family of nations, their efforts have been in vain.

One of the consequences of the war in Ukraine is the loss of Moscow's pro-European illusions. As I wrote since 2014 in my essay, "The New Pivot of History", Russia's natural allies and most reliable partners are in Asia (China and India), not in Europe.

We can therefore speak from now on of Russia as an ASIAN military (and perhaps in the future also economic) power , one of the 3 great powers in the Indo-Pacific area, which are becoming more and more economically and strategically integrated and geostrategically opposed to the Western Euro-Atlantic bloc, headed by the USA.

Many American politicians and specialists try to accredit the idea of ​​a geostrategic symmetry between the situation in Ukraine and the existing one between China and Taiwan. In reality, the threat that Ukraine represents for Russia in case the former succeeds in joining the EU and NATO is incomparably greater than that represented by Taiwan for China. 

Unlike Russia, which has already been invaded by coalitions of western states twice in the last 200 years, China is not in danger of being attacked from the east, using Taiwan as a base to launch a potential invasion. In other words, although there is the possibility of a military conflict between China and Taiwan, catalyzed by the US and Japan, the confrontation cannot take on an existential character for Beijing, as is the case with the current military confrontation between Russia and Ukraine.

UKRAINE IS A GEOPOLITICAL BLACK HOLE

 The readers of my blog can be forgiven if they are still under the illusion that what the world is doing in Ukraine is safeguarding the independence of a newly-minted country against the aggression of Russia. On a superficial level this seems indeed to be the case.

In fact, we should look at Ukraine as the ultimate - man-made - geopolitical black hole. 

Such a place sucks up the resources of neighbouring countries, human or material, leading to their economic and even physical destruction. This black hole has a sick form of nationalism at its centre of gravity, which is aggressive, domineering and intolerant with other ethnic groups happening to live within the same borders. 

The Ukrainian black hole has a history of 31 years and it started after the implosion of the USSR with Kiev's refusal to allow ethnic groups at its fringes to revert to the countries they were severed from, by Stalin or his successors.

The saga continued with the involvement in the region of the US, which since 2008 started sponsoring Kiev's intolerant nationalism in earnest, with a view to weakening, destroying or partitioning its old (new) foe, Russia. 

By 2014, all the essential elements that led to the creation of the Ukrainian black hole were in place, culminating with the Maidan coup against the Yanukovich government.

Gradually, the new geopolitical black hole, an initial creation of western services, went from bad to worse. From 2014 to 2022, the US, EU and Russia all fought a losing battle to use and control the political centre of this black hole. The Russians lost first, hence the Ukrainian intervention and their annexation of Donbas. This however does not mean that the Americans or the EU won, and this is why:

The peculiarity of a geopolitical black hole is that it eventually becomes uncontrollable. Its political leaders develop an agenda of their own and bleed their sponsors dry, financially, militarily or economically. Thus, it is enough to consider the 60+ billion dollars spent only by the US so far this year, or the economic disaster currently affecting Europe from London to Berlin, to grasp the danger of the existence on the edges of the continent of the Ukrainian geopolitical black hole.

Like Serbia before it, Ukraine will not ultimately end up in control of the territories - inherited from the USSR - it now claims as its own. We now know that the Serbian black hole was also a man-made one, having been the creation of a freemasonry bent on destroying the Austro-Hungarian and Tsarist empires. The Serbs ended up controlling parts of the former Austro-Hungarian territories like Croatia and Slovenia, but they lost it all some decades later. An identical fate is in store for Kiev's ultranationalist regime, although I suspect its territorial losses are coming much sooner, if the Russian annexation is any guide.

The task of politicians everywhere is to resist being sucked into the Ukrainian black hole - an occurrence that would have disastrous consequences for world peace. 

The Kiev regime has no intention to run a normal country. It refuses to correct the errors of its ways and negotiate an end to the conflict. This attitude, however, is in perfect accordance with the essential characteristics of a geopolitical black hole, whose gravitational pull towards generalised conflict is very hard, if not impossible, to resist.