Turkish Voters Weary of Erdogan's Style

 March 30, 2009

The Turkish local elections ended on Sunday after a tense, national-like campaign designed by the ruling party AKP’s leaders to win key cities in Kurdish-dominated zones. Although it has won 39 percent of the vote, this is 8 percent short of the projected win envisaged by premier Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Moreover, this is the first time since the 2002 electoral win by AKP that the party has scored so low at the polls. Whilst many Turkish columnists argue that the global crisis is responsible for the poor electoral performance, many others including foreign observers blame it on Erdogan’s increasingly autocratic political style. Most likely, the truth lies somewhere in the middle.

Earlier this month, IPI (International Press Institute) and its affiliate SEEMO (South East Europe Media Organisation) have asked Commissioner Olli Rehn and other EU officials to press the Turkish government to respect freedom of the press and the life and limb of journalists who dare criticise the prime minister or lesser officials. The two organisations claim that Erdogan has publicly called for the boycott of newspapers critical of his performance in office and has slapped a 380 million-euro fine on Mr Dogan’s media empire. A friend-turned-foe, the Turkish media mogul’s journalists had been very critical of Mr Erdogan’s policies of late.

The premier’s critics claim he has all but abandoned his reform agenda. With unemployment in Turkey running at 14 % and with a fall in industrial production of more than 21 %, they had hoped his government would conclude negotiations with the IMF for a 20 billion plus bailout package. These were delayed, however, until yesterday’s election results became known.

The election results should act as a warning for Mr Erdogan if he wishes to continue in office and win the 2011 national ballot. To be sure, neglecting the economy and attacking press people critical of his performance is not the right recipe for success. Says Bilal Cetin, of Vatan newspaper: “The results show that the upward period for the AKP has ended. There are two possible reasons for that. First his choice to pursue tense policies and secondly the economic crisis that he underestimated, as well as increased corruption claims. If it continues, this downward trend poses a serious warning and even risk for the general elections due in spring of 2011. Turkey could return to coalition governments after the 2011 elections.”

In any free and pluralistic society, the press and its people are the guardians of democracy. By attacking them viciously and repeatedly, Mr Erdogan facilitates the return of his country to a time when the military played that role only too willingly – to everyone’s chagrin.

Integrating the Western Balkans into the EU

 March 18, 2009

Last week the Czech prime minister, Mr Topolanek, has lobbied hard for the admission of Croatia in the European Union. Talking to EurActiv, he stated that stopping EU enlargement is a “road to hell”.

According to him, many EU members would favour the admission of Croatia, but delay accession talks with Serbia, Macedonia, Montenegro or Albania. The wisdom of such an enlargement strategy is anybody’s guess.

What Mr Topolanek does not seem to understand is the fact that the European Union needs time to assimilate its new members before committing to further expansion. If we take enlargement history as a guide, we notice that there is a twenty-year interval between the accession of Spain and Portugal (1986) and that of the 12 new Central and South European members (2004-2007). (The admission of Austria, Finland and Sweden during the 90’s has not stretched the Union’s resources, as those countries’ overall performance was equal to or higher than the EU average).

Furthermore, experience shows that the newest members are also the hardest to integrate successfully, given their post-Soviet hangovers and economic or judicial handicaps. They have yet to achieve the level of economic and infrastructure development, or monetary and fiscal discipline enjoyed by older Union countries. This, alas, takes time, it cannot be accomplished within a decade. In fact, at least two full decades are needed before their integration can be called a success and new members could be admitted. As we now stand, even countries like the Czech Republic have problems accepting a higher level of political integration and, on occasion, its leaders mistake the euro for the Soviet ruble.

A better EU strategy could ultimately be to admit all Western Balkan countries in one wave at some later date. After all, most, if not all were formerly part of the now-defunct Yugoslavia. Admitting Croatia but refusing to consider Serbia’s bid to join, could prove politically unwise. Fast-tracking Montenegro’s membership application, on the other hand, will not wipe out organised crime over there anytime soon. Albania should be given the same sporting chance as its neighbours to join the Union, but only after it deals with its serious economic and social troubles. This way, former Yugoslav republics would probably understand that the Union does not reward fratricide, interethnic wars, quite the opposite. And finally, the leaders of newly-admitted countries should avoid embarking on lobbying efforts on behalf of Balkan countries, hoping for economic advantages in the region.

Beijing's Olive Branch Offer

 March 6, 2009

Even as Western economists disagree as to the depth and duration of the current economic crisis, one thing is certain : it fosters closer economic cooperation between China and its Asian neighbours. The crisis might also generate unexpected peace dividends for the region.

Speaking before the National People’s Congress yesterday, the Chinese premier claimed his country was ready “to hold talks on cross-strait political and military issues and create conditions for ending the state of hostility and the conclusion of a peace agreement between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait.” (source: China Post) In a bid to placate Taiwanese critics, premier Wen also hinted that China would consider ways of allowing Taiwan to participate in the activities of international organisations.

The Chinese premier was even more generous with the economic aid package. He promised financial assistance for Taiwanese businesses operating on the mainland and an acceleration of efforts to normalise cross-strait economic relations, culminating with the signing of a comprehensive trade agreement. To be sure, this was welcome news for the Taipei stock exchange, which was up 2.11 per cent following the announcement, whilst the New Taiwan dollar exchange rate rose by 12 cents. This contrasted sharply with the Dow Jones’s 4.1 per cent drop the same day, following news about the troubles affecting US icons General Motors and Citicorp.(source: WSJ)

The fresh peace overtures from Beijing come as the Chinese budget mandates another 15 per cent increase in defence spending for 2009. For Western military analysts, the rise is disquieting. Rightly or wrongly, most intelligence officials see it as leading to a heightening of military tensions in Asia-Pacific. Some also claim that the ultimate aim of increased spending is Asian hegemonism, a charge that Chinese officials reject. The latter cite US sales of sophisticated weapons to Taiwan as justification for the continued rise in the military budget.

Less hawkish analysts, however, consider that the reasons behind the repeated rises in China’s defence budget are Chinese paranoia about NATO’s presence in Afghanistan and its army’s need to modernise antiquated weapons systems.

Ultimately, it may just be that Beijing’s recent peace initiative is simply good old-fashioned Chinese pragmatism at work. As the crisis starts to bite, establishing closer economic ties with Taiwan could prove much more fruitful than continuing with the military or diplomatic confrontations of yesteryear. Time will tell.