Ukraine and the Crisis of Diplomacy

  I propose to look at the current crisis from another angle, that of the crisis of the diplomatic profession.

200 years ago, in a turbulent European context marked by the Napoleonic Wars, a neutral state appeared on the map of the continent, a republic in the middle of the kingdoms of the time: Switzerland.

This was made possible by the support of Tsarist Russia and the diplomatic genius of its Foreign Minister Ioannis Kapodistria . Thanks to his talent and sustained efforts, Switzerland's independence and neutrality have been recognized and guaranteed by all the great European powers.

Fast forward to the 21st century, when the tradition of competent diplomats has almost completely disappeared. The main cause for this situation is without a doubt the usurpation of the competencies specific to the diplomatic profession by the heads of Western states, eager to appear as great international crisis solvers (they are not!) in the spotlight of the TV cameras. This has delegitimized the field of diplomacy and marginalized career diplomats, who would now have been the only ones able to negotiate a neutral status for Ukraine and help resolve the political-military stalemate the tensions have reached.

What's worse is the fact that seasoned diplomats like Kennan or Kissinger have been replaced by militant women, either feminists like Hillary Clinton or neoconservatives like Victoria Nuland, who have greatly aggravated the geostrategic situation throughout Eastern Europe. Such "diplomats" not only did not help ease geostrategic tensions, but even catalyzed them (see Victoria Nuland's actions in Maidan Square in 2014). It is well known that in diplomacy the persons for whom ideological options prevail cannot function effectively, regardless of the nature of their ideology.

It is interesting to note that the role of diplomats in international negotiations, which has been severely eroded over the last hundred years, has never before been so completely affected, not even by interwar dictators, such as Hitler or Stalin. The latter did not take any interest in Soviet foreign policy until 1936, leaving the field almost exclusively in the care of Litvinov, the USSR's foreign policy commissioner. Litvinov's replacement in 1939 was followed by one of the great failures of Soviet diplomacy: the signing of the Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact. However, the treaty in question was negotiated and signed on behalf of the two states by Ribbentrop and Molotov, respectively, on behalf of the USSR.

The trend for summits between the leaders of the world's most important states started during World War II, with Churchill, Rosevelt and Stalin meeting in Tehran and Yalta. It was resumed in 1989 when Presidents GH Bush and M. Gorbachev met in Malta, and summits have remained in fashion to this day.

The most important successes during the Cold War, however, such as the policy of detente or the signing of strategic arms reduction treaties, are attributed to diplomacy corps led by Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko, not Leonid Brezhnev. The signing of the peace treaty that ended the Vietnam War was negotiated by Henry Kissinger, not by Richard Nixon, etc.

Let's be serious, the United States (and for some time Russia, France or the United Kingdom) no longer have well-trained diplomats who will play a key role in reducing tensions between states or blocs of states. In crisis situations, such as now on the Ukrainian border, it is not Blinken or Lavrov who are called to resolve the stalemate, but President Biden or Vladimir Putin directly.

The conclusion to the above is clear. In the absence of competent senior diplomats, fully in charge of the foreign policy of their states, crises between blocs can degenerate into military conflicts, which jeopardize peace in Europe or elsewhere in the world. The absence of the diplomatic buffer is therefore very ominous for all parties involved in economic or military conflicts. However, until the role of diplomats in international relations is restored, situations of this kind can only degenerate.

The EU's Übermensch Politicians

 Initially at least, the advent of the EU seemed like a great idea. After two devastating world wars, six nations most affected by them decided to set their differences aside and form an economic union that would prevent further armed conflicts. Today Europe has known almost 70 years of peace, although the jury is still out as to where the credit should go for this. As an historian, I believe that keeping the peace in Europe is mainly the legacy of NATO, and less that of the EU itself.

Over this period, some politicians have conspired behind the scenes to transform the EU's community of nations into a federal superstate. Such politicians ignore the fact that - for better or for worse - the nation-states are the building blocks on which Europe stands. They hope that the EU superstate would in time be able to push member states to transfer most of their sovereignty to Brussels and that a new breed of politicians, as well as institutions, will replace current leaders  and national parliaments.

The philosopher in vogue among this federalist group of politicians is none other than Friedrich Nietzsche. Nietzsche's ideas about transcending national politics and building a pan-European polity, totally emancipated from Christian morality and any concept of good and evil, have unfortunately brought to power in major EU countries such as France, for instance, political leaders like Macron.

According to Hugo Drochon (author of "Nietzsche's Great Politics"), Macron is a true blue Nietzschean political figure. An Ubermensch, so to speak. From Nietzsche's "Thus Spoke Zarathustra", we all know what the Ubermensch stands for in political terms. Such a politician is animated by "the will to power", he or she does not have any strong principles and they believe that the state is just an overseer of the operations of private companies. Together with a bunch of like-minded intellectuals, this type of politician is basically anti-democratic and believes in a sort of a future "caste society" in which the servile Untermenschen are supposed to produce the goods and services for the new European elites. 

In short, what we are witnessing is the advent of one of the most illiberal elites ever, bent on repressing the will of European national political leaders and ultimately bringing about the fusion of nation-states into the EU superstate. 

Naturally, Macron is only the most accomplished product of Nietzschean political philosophy, but of course there are others sharing these values and a pronounced distaste for democracy. One can easily recognise them by their support for EU federalism, for the primacy of EU directives over national legislation, or by their advocacy for the creation of transnational political parties.

As Brexit has already proved, however, European nations will not put up for long with politicians and EU bureaucrats inspired by a German philosopher who at 45, in the prime of his life, suffered the complete loss of his mental faculties.

When History repeats itself as a Farce

 

On the 20th of October the US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin visited Bucharest, where he met with President Iohannis and Defence Minister Ciuca. A day later, President Iohannis designated Ciuca as the next Prime Minister of Romania, to replace the disgraced Vasile Citu. 

At first, General Ciuca sought a parliamentary vote of confidence in a PNL minority government and failed. For his second attempt, President Iohannis enlisted the help of Romania's social democratic party (PSD), which he brought - against the wishes of many Liberal party members - into a coalition with the ruling Liberals, not before destroying the former coalition between the Liberals and a smaller centre-right party, USR Plus.

Iohannis - who for years has campaigned and got re-elected as president on an anti-PSD platform (which was regularly labelled by him as the "red plague") - has thus stunned most members of his Liberal party, as well as the country's leading writers and artists who had hitherto supported his policies and presidential bids. Moreover, he single-handedly imposed Citu as the new president of the Liberal party and provoked the expulsion of the incumbent party president, former PM Ludovic Orban, who was against undoing the coalition with USR Plus. (To fully understand the character of Iohannis, it's worth mentioning the fact that it was Ludovic Orban who had convinced his party members in 2014 to accept Iohannis and to support his presidential bid.)

Lloyd Austin came to Bucharest in the middle of the crisis provoked by the political clumsiness of the Romanian president. In all probability, he was the one who advised Iohannis to promote general Ciuca to the post of Romanian PM, the first general to lead the government since the end of WWII.

A historical retrospective is in order here. In 1940, Hitler was preparing the invasion of the USSR and badly needed Romania's oil reserves and military help. As a result, general Ion Antonescu was the prime minister selected to lead Romania during the war, with the support of Nazi Germany. The tragedy of Romania after 1945 sprung from the nefarious alliance concluded by Antonescu with Hitler, which ended up in the occupation of the country by the victorious Red Army.

As Marx was fond of reminding his readers, history can only be repeated twice: first as a tragedy, and the second time as a farce. 

To put things into perspective, it is fair to say that Putin is nowhere near as fierce an enemy of the West as Stalin once was. Lloyd Austin's efforts to prepare the Eastern flank of NATO for a Russian invasion of Ukraine are largely misguided. What's more, the American Secretary of Defence is guilty of gross interference in Romania's internal political affairs and of playing an identical role in Romanian eyes to that of Hitler in 1940. In other words, Lloyd Austin behaved in Bucharest like a Hitler 2.0 of sorts, provoking the ire of the Romanian intellectual and artistic elites who feel they're witnessing a grotesque political farce all over again.

A Farewell to French Submarines from Australia

Make no mistake, I was born in Romania, a formerly Francophone country, I hold a master's degree from a French university and I am a great admirer of French gastronomy.

The submarine crisis, however, is overblown. France's neo-Napoleonic dream of becoming top dog in the Indo-Pacific region is naive. The French cannot conceivably guarantee Australia's security in case of troubles with China: only the United States could. What's more, France's diplomatic relations with Australia have been tepid until a few years ago, when Francois Hollande and a misguided Australian prime minister decided to sign a contract for 12 French-built submarines in order to upgrade the Australian fleet. Unlike the UK or the US, France has been a continental - not a maritime - military power. As Charles de Gaulle astutely pointed out to Macmillan, on the other hand:

"the sense of being an island remains very strong with you. England looks to the sea, towards wider horizons. She remains very linked to the United States by language, by habits and by certain agreements. The natural course of your policy leads you to seek the agreement of the Americans because you are ‘mondiaux’ … .”

Looking back in history, one should not forget that Napoleon even planned to invade Sydney in 1814 and to evict the newly-established British colonists from New South Wales. To date, Australians have contributed far more to the security of France during the  2 world wars than the French will ever contribute to Australia's security, now or in the future. 

The Australian government has a duty to its citizens to choose from all possible strategic partnerships the one that best ensures the security of the country in today's tense Indo-Pacific strategic environment. Accordingly, Australian leaders should not feel compelled to apologise for changing their minds and putting their country's interests first.

Is the US Following into the Footsteps of Latin America ?

 One of the unintended consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic has been the exacerbation of the cancel/woke wars taking place in some Anglo-Saxon societies and especially in the United States.

The trend had been obvious for decades. In 2004, for example, Samuel Huntington cautioned his peers - in one of his most widely-read essays - that American elites have turned their backs on their own country and sowed the seeds of mistrust in the American government and institutions.

Since then things have gone from bad to worse. The enemies of America, radicalised activists belonging to the African-American, Chinese or other ethnic minorities have ignited the culture wars that are entering their final phase under our own eyes.

American politicians have responded inadequately to this extremely worrisome development, especially those on the left of the political spectrum. To be sure, the solution to the current predicament experienced by American society does not lie in appointing representatives of African-American or any other member of ethnic minorities  to the highest offices in the land. As the current crisis is truly an existential one, adopting the ostrich approach or trying to appease those bent on destroying the cultural heritage of the West is not only wrong but self-defeating, as well.

Nor are these developments restricted to the American nation. In true Marxist fashion, the representatives of the cancel/woke movement have made huge strides in exporting their anti-white, anti-European policies to all corners of the West, from other English-speaking countries to France and Germany as well.

The ultimate goal of these radical activists is not only the wholesale cancellation of the US' European cultural heritage, but also of the European stock itself, of natives or immigrants individually. In other words, the objective seems to be to replace the white leadership and bureaucrats, Latin-American style, starting with the United States as the model. European descendents of the original settlers and European recent immigrants to America are thus faced with practical consequences of this cancel culture. It has become difficult if not impossible for them to work successfully in academia, state agencies and even in the private sector. In my 40-year experience as an immigrant to Australia, what has shocked me is the utter inability of many Asian immigrants to learn and subsequently to uphold - in a work environment -  Australian traditional values, as well as their propensity to replace these with their own values, which they deem "superior".

The neo-marxist nature of the woke/cancel culture movements, in the US and elsewhere, is unmistakable. Their revolutionary aim is also abundantly clear: Western societies - which are accused of being racist and supremacist- need to be replaced with societies led by hitherto marginal minorities. According to this revolutionary scenario, political leaders have to be selected, like in Latin America after the Bolivarian revolution, from the ranks of mixed race groups. The historical experience of such an endeavour is, unfortunately, nothing short of disastruous. Thus, it is a known fact that the Bolivarian war of independence that took place in Latin America in the 19th century has never brought economic prosperity, peace and stability to the South American continent, quite on the contrary.

We are used to thinking that the world is undergoing a geopolitical shift from the Western alliance to the Eurasian continent, without realising that the bigger danger facing the West is actually the wholesale replacement of its elites and politicians by a consortium of African-American and Asian immigrants. Their racial designs are not hidden anymore, and they are causing enormous damage to the social fabric of the Western societies in which these ethnic minorities have representatives in sufficient numbers. 

The continuation of such policy errors can only bring about the demise of the West from its current leadership position. Furthermore, if the racial designs of African or Asian minorities against white European natives or immigrants are not stopped and reversed soon, America is in danger of losing not only its leadership of world affairs, but control of its own society as well. In this existential fight, no American - or Western politician, for that matter - can afford to be complacent, because for the vanquished there isn't going to be a safe place to hide this time.

The Canary in the Coal Mine

 Last December, Germany finalised a Comprehensive  Agreement on investment  with China on behalf of the EU, angering many EU members in the process. While somewhat understandable from a German point of view, the speed with which the agreement was concluded and the opportunity to do so in the current context leave much to be desired.

Before signing it, officials should have taken clues from last year's attack by the Chinese government on Australian exports. As dependent as Germany is on the Chinese market for a significant share of its exports, Australia has seen its barley, beef, wine, lobster, timber and even coal exports brutally affected by an official ban. China has revived its old imperial kow-tow policy, according to which countries around it could see their access to its market denied if the political leadership in Beijing feels slighted by them in any way.

Australia has displeased Beijing last year when it called for an international inquiry on the origins of the Covid-19 pandemic. The call was seconded at the time by the EU and is fully justified in scientific terms, even if the Chinese leadership preferred to give it a political spin. Soon thereafter the Chinese government started targeting Australian exports one after another on an almost monthly basis, trying to make an example of Australia should any other country try to follow in its footsteps. Problem is, Australia had signed a bilateral free trade agreement with China back in 2015, which should theoretically have protected the two countries' companies from such unwarranted political disputes. It follows that concluding treaties with China is not worth the paper treaties are written on and will clearly not protect anyone .

The EU-China investment protection treaty ( CAI) should not be ratified until the Chinese government abandons such harmful commercial tactics with Western countries like Australia, with which they have a free trade agreement in force. In this case, Australia is no more and no less than the canary in the coalmine for the EU, blinded - as it were -  by the false hope of enjoying normal economic relations with China.

Once it concludes major trade agreements, China succeeds in modernising and in boosting its own economy's growth. However, it does so at the expense of its trading partners, as its record attests when examining its economic relations with first the USSR and then the US.

This is why Australia's recent commercial predicament should be taken seriously in Brussels and should act as a powerful brake against the type of wishful thinking that disregards Chinese polity's true nature and its hidden geopolitical agenda.

From Tiananmen to Hong Kong via Timisoara

 

July 10, 2020

First, as a responsible major country, China stands upright with honour. We never strong-arm others, never seek supremacy, never withdraw from commitments, never bully others, and never complain. The word ‘coercion’ has nothing to do with China.
— Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying, October 2019

If anyone cares to listen to the Chinese Foreign Ministry’s vehement reaction against any country objecting to what is currently happening in Hong Kong, they will notice that Chinese authorities are basing their rebuttals on the principle of non interference in China’s internal affairs.

For seven decades, the affirmation of non interference in a country’s internal affairs has been one of the pillars of China’s foreign policy. Look closer, however, and the much-trumpeted principle means that other nations are forbidden to comment on Chinese internal policies, but Chinese officials on the other hand feel free to intervene in other countries’ internal affairs, sometimes with disastrous consequences.

Starting with 1964, Zhou Enlai prodded socialist leaders from the Soviet bloc to rise in revolt against Moscow’s territorial grab after World War II. Ceausescu fell for it and started claiming back Bessarabia, which Romania had lost in 1940 before the communists came to power.

Also during the sixties, the CCP tried to force Albania to enter into an anti-Soviet, pro-Chinese alliance together with Yugoslavia and Romania, according to the memoirs of the late Enver Hoxha, Albania’s former Stalinist leader.

In 1971, taking advantage of the uncalled for visit to Beijing of Australia’s Labor leader of the opposition, the same Zhou Enlai swiftly used the unhoped-for opportunity in order to attack Australia’s alliance with the United States, which he compared to China’s alliance with the USSR. The ANZUS Treaty has been under attack by the Chinese ever since.

As we all know , communism was foreign to the political traditions of Central and Eastern European countries. After WWII the communist regimes came to power there under the occupation of Red Army troops. In 1989 Mikhail Gorbatchev was intelligent enough to recognise that such a political arrangement was no longer desirable or sustainable. Accordingly, after he ordered the Red Army troops to withdraw, the communist dictatorships of Central and Eastern Europe were toppled one after another by pro-democracy movements.

The fall of communism in Eastern Europe emboldened pro-democracy forces in China to occupy Tiananmen Square and ask, in their turn, for the democratization of political life. After a few weeks of indecision, the Chinese communist leadership asked the PLA to crush the demonstrators, killing hundreds in the process.

Thus from June to December 1989, China was the only communist state that dared to use the army against its own people. To be sure, this was a very unenviable position to be in. This is the reason why the Chinese leadership decided to grossly interfere in Romanian internal affairs, attempting to prop up the Ceausescu regime. At the end of November 1989, a Chinese Politburo member touched down in Bucharest, offering support and military aid to the Romanian dictator.Consequently the Romanian revolution was the only one in Europe where the army was used against the demonstrators, Tiananmen-style. The bloody events led to the execution of the presidential couple. (At the time, the couple’s execution in Romania was extremely well received by Chinese protesters and students )

In truth, no amount of police repression, book burnings or imprisonment of pro-democracy dissidents can make democratic aspirations go away. Such aspirations are, indeed, truly universal and no nation who refuses to democratize could be considered civilized, regardless of its economic status or number of boots on the ground. By resisting democratic reforms, the Chinese leadership is in fact keeping their country outside the ranks of civilized nations, and in a league with other dictatorships from Africa or Asia. This is the reason why the only respectable people in China these days are the pro-democracy dissidents and militants.

It would be wrong to assume, however, that Chinese authorities’ meddling in other countries’ internal affairs has diminished in intensity. To give but one example, since 2012 they have created a 16+1 group from ex-communist countries in Eastern Europe plus a few from the Western Balkans. (This is the political component of the Belt and Road infrastructure project.) Eleven countries from the group are full EU members and China’s diplomatic initiative is a grave interference in the Union’s internal affairs. As the 1989 Timisoara repression proves, we can safely assume that Beijing is prone to extend its support to radical nationalistic and anti-democratic political parties within this group of countries.

This is one of the many reasons why EU officialdom is more than entitled to act in support of Hong Kong dissidents and the Uighur minority, in accordance with the fundamental values the European Union was built upon. In future, they should make it clear to China’s henchmen that they are fully expected to respect the democratic aspirations of the Chinese people, for the benefit of China and the international community as a whole. Any lesser reaction to the current events in Hong Kong can be construed as kowtowing to China in exchange for elusive economic gains.